No matter how fantastic your program is, unless it is completely comprehensive (i.e., the Mars isolation experiment), other, external factors will influence how much your participants succeed. Their families might be extremely supportive – or extremely distracting. They may watch telenovelas to supplement a Spanish language class. They may receive an inheritance shortly after completing a down-payment assistance program.
Impact evaluation attempts to control for all of those other factors and determine what outcomes can specifically be attributed to a given policy or program. It does so in one of two ways:
- Randomly assigning people to get the service, and assuming that the comparison population shares many of those same external factors, at least across a large enough group
- Using statistical or qualitative methods to control for the external factors as you are analyzing a program’s impact